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HVAC.com · Turning Traffic Into Intent

Case Study · HVAC.com

Turning Traffic Into Intent:
Calculators & Conversion

Built high-intent tools from scratch that converted at 50x the site baseline, turning a high-traffic homeowner platform into a lead generation engine.

50×

Conversion Lift (Calculators)

~2M

Annual Visitors

5

Tools Launched

Role: Senior Product Manager, HVAC.com and Branded Sites

Introduction

I owned product strategy, UX, and growth for HVAC.com, a homeowner platform with ~2M annual visits that connects consumers to trusted HVAC dealers nationwide. I owned the full digital funnel, from first touch to dealer handoff, driving measurable conversion gains and shaping Trane's broader digital strategy.

What I Inherited

HVAC.com had QuoteScore (a tool to validate HVAC quotes) and a Replace funnel that guided homeowners through questions to receive a quote. I inherited and continued to iterate on both, running experiments to improve conversion at every step. But the site lacked middle-funnel tools and had no Repair experience.

What I Built

I launched the Repair experience from scratch, created three interactive calculators, defined and shipped an LLM assistant for homeowner questions, and redesigned the blog to drive traffic into our funnels. No material change shipped without an A/B test, which was only practical because both funnels sat behind feature flags I controlled directly. I ran dozens of experiments across all parts of the site, building a culture of data-driven iteration.

The Problem

Two million annual visitors, but only 0.1% were converting. The gap between "I'm researching HVAC" and "I'm ready for a quote" was too wide, with nothing in between to capture intent and build trust.

The Traffic Problem

  • ~2M annual visitors, mostly informational intent
  • Homeowners researching, not ready to commit
  • High bounce rates on content pages
  • No middle-funnel engagement tools
  • 0.1% baseline conversion rate

The User Problem

  • "Should I repair or replace?" - no clear answer
  • "What size system do I need?" - required professional assessment
  • "How much will I save with a better system?" - hard to quantify
  • Homeowners felt unprepared to request quotes
  • No "aha moments" to build confidence

Strategy & Solution

The insight was simple: if we give high-intent homeowners engaging tools that deliver "aha moments," they'll stick around to see what we can do for them. Instead of asking for commitment upfront, we'd provide value first, then offer a natural next step.

SEO-Driven Discovery

Partnered with SEO to understand what homeowners were actually searching for. The questions were clear: repair vs replace, system sizing, energy savings. These became our calculator roadmap.

Value-First Engagement

Each calculator delivered a personalized answer to a real question. By the time users finished, they'd invested time, received value, and were primed to take the next step.

Funnel Integration

Every calculator ended with a contextual path to our replacement funnel. Users who just learned they should replace their unit could immediately get a quote, pre-qualified and motivated.

Platform Capabilities

I expanded the product surface area significantly, launching new experiences while continuously improving inherited tools through rigorous A/B testing.

Repair Experience

Launched from scratch. A new funnel for homeowners needing HVAC repairs, expanding beyond replacement-only to capture a broader audience.

Interactive Calculators

Built three calculators from Excel prototype to production: Repair/Replace, HVAC Load, and SEER Savings. Each delivered "aha moments" that drove users to our funnels.

Redesigned Blog

Improved the blog experience to increase depth, engagement, and lead volume, creating clear paths from educational content into conversion funnels.

AI Assistant

Defined and launched an LLM assistant that answers homeowner questions conversationally and routes each answer into the right funnel. Same strategy as the calculators, delivered as a conversation instead of a form. Still live on HVAC.com today.

Split.io Experimentation Controls

Put both the Repair and Replace funnels behind Split.io flags. That gave me direct control of the funnel itself: remove a step, reorder the sequence, rewrite the copy, and run every variant against control. The funnel structure was the variable, not just the wording on it.

Replace Funnel Iteration

Inherited and continuously optimized the replacement funnel through dozens of A/B tests on step order, copy, and flow.

QuoteScore Support

Inherited and supported QuoteScore, which validated homeowner quotes and converted at 6% by capturing high-intent users.

Product Walkthrough

From calculator entry points to the replacement funnel, each touchpoint was designed to build confidence and guide homeowners toward action.

HVAC.com Calculator Hub
1. Calculator Hub: Entry point for all tools
QuoteScore Landing Page
2. QuoteScore: Validate your HVAC quote
Replacement Landing Page
3. Replacement Landing: High-intent entry
Replacement Funnel Step 1
4. Quote Funnel: Address entry step
HVAC.com Ask AI assistant answering a repair or replace question
5. Ask AI: Conversational answers with a path into the funnel

Execution & Key Decisions

Where the experiments actually ran, how they were sequenced against a narrow summer window, and what it took to keep SEO, engineering and design pointed at one roadmap.

Relentless A/B Testing

Dozens of tests across the entire site. Every material change was validated. This built confidence in decisions and created a culture of experimentation.

Behavioral Analytics

Used session-to-install data, user paths, and behavioral analytics to identify friction points and refine the homeowner journey for better lead quality.

Funnel-Level Experimentation

Every variant ran against control without an engineering deploy. Changing the funnel stopped being a ticket and became a same-day product decision. Test velocity went from deploy-limited to idea-limited.

Excel Prototyping

Built calculator logic in Excel first to validate formulas and test edge cases before engineering work began. De-risked development and accelerated alignment.

Seasonal Timing

Launched calculators aggressively over summer to capture peak HVAC replacement season. Homeowners with broken AC in July don't wait.

Cross-Functional Alignment

Aligned engineering, SEO, marketing, design, and sales ops around a clear roadmap, accelerating delivery across the organization.

Outcomes

Each initiative materially lifted the 0.1% baseline conversion rate, proving that high-intent tools and data-driven iteration could transform a high-traffic site into a lead generation engine.

Calculators: 7.3%

Peaked at 7.3%, settled to ~5%. A 50x sustained lift over the 0.1% baseline, proving value-first tools drive conversion.

QuoteScore: 6%

Inherited tool converting at 6%, capturing homeowners who already had quotes and were ready to validate and act.

Video Content: 3.4%

Video-driven pages converted at 3.4%, proving educational content drives action when paired with clear CTAs.

Landing Pages: 2.3%

Optimized landing pages lifted conversion to 2.3%, 23x the baseline through targeted messaging and shorter paths to the form.

Platform Expansion

Expanded product surface area with HVAC Repair services, three interactive calculators, and a redesigned blog that increased depth, engagement, and lead volume.

Trane Integration & Impact

Insights from HVAC.com informed Trane's System Recommender Tool pilot in Florida, later expanded to NC, SC, GA, TX, and AZ.

Challenges

Building high-impact tools on a tight timeline while navigating an acquisition required focus, flexibility, and trust-building across teams.

Early Phase

Validating Calculator Logic

HVAC sizing and savings calculations needed to be accurate enough to be useful, but simple enough for homeowners to complete. Excel prototyping helped us find the right balance before committing to development.

Mid Phase

Racing the Season

Summer is peak HVAC replacement season. We had a narrow window to launch calculators and capture high-intent traffic. This meant aggressive timelines and ruthless prioritization.

Late Phase

Trane Acquisition Integration

Integrating into a larger organization mid-project required adapting to new processes while maintaining momentum. I brought fresh ideas to annual planning that helped shape the 2025 roadmap.

Ongoing

Proving Value Across Teams

Demonstrating that calculator insights could inform Trane's broader product strategy required building trust and translating HVAC.com learnings into enterprise context.

Lessons Learned

Test Everything

No material change without an A/B test. Dozens of experiments built confidence in decisions and created a culture where data won arguments.

Value First, Commitment Second

High-intent tools that deliver "aha moments" convert dramatically better than generic CTAs. Give users something useful before asking for their information.

Build Controls, Not Just Features

The calculators got the credit, but the flags are why we could run dozens of tests in a single season. Owning the ability to remove a step without a deploy changes what you are willing to try. Ship the control surface alongside the feature.

Small Teams Can Inform Big Roadmaps

Insights from HVAC.com directly influenced Trane's System Recommender Tool and 2025 planning. Focused work can shape enterprise strategy.